WMT · SHORT · IVB·Dojo Trading·This Walmart trade setup analyzes a high-probability trading opportunity based on key levels, price action, and market structure. Complete trade idea, execution, risk management, and final outcome.
Entry
121.42
TP1
117.25
TP2
111.53
TP3
105
The entry thought
Reasoning: (purely technical)
- Price exited from 3M fair value
- Confirmed weekly BOS below 16th March low with 1/2 body candle
- Confirmed HTF IVB model
- Left behind 5D BB + 4D BB
- POC at $127 is covered by M supply
Technically speaking, this is an HTF strong setup (considering the abovementioned confluences)
I'm gonna risk 0.5% of my capital for this trade.
On the way out
Gonna plan to exit by cutting partial profits and trailing the position.
Where the idea would break
If the price starts to melt all levels again closing above and also exiting from VAH the setup is invalidated.
On sizing the position
Size is perfectly on point.
How it unfolded
17-06-2026: Price formed a clean LTF 3 drives going for the 5D BB and getting rejected from the VAL, which is a good +1 for the trade. Didn't have the opportunity to enter at the EQ of the 5D BB but got an enter slightly later after the mitigation. Currently running in profit and if we extend the move I will take a partial at $117 moving the SL2BE. That is a double breaker and can act as a bounce zone, so it makes sense. If for any reaons we can melt it, becomes a triple breaker where to trailing the short targeting TP2.
1-07-2026: Price hit the TP2 and is very close to also hit the TP3 and complete the trade. What's important to notice in here is that WMT opened today's session with a breakway gap, below the TP2 which is a demand. For the concept of breakway gap, these formations don't tend to get filled and the price tends to continue in the direction of the gap. However, since it's all about probabilities, I can consider the demand being retested as a breaker for continuation down to the TP3, that would be the best. In case, for any reason, the price decides to close above the TP2, I will cut the trade in profit since it can be used for bouncing more.
11.07.2026: Price reclaimed the TP2 starting to closed above and therefore, based on the "secondary plan" highlighted in the last update, I closed the short. In these cases I believe is always very tempting to hold a trade because you're "hoping" for another round of profits, but very often you end up roundtripping everything. Maybe it will continue down from here hitting the TP3, but I prefer to respect the plan getting out with a nice +45% on the trade, so I closed it. If it will hit the TP3, I will think about taking a long.
Looking back
TP1 hit, TP2 hit, not TP3 since the price reclaimed the demand.
Exit
115.65
Closed.