The trade idea was based on a HTF swing setup in Silver, with the Value Area Low (VAL) around $67.77 acting as the primary execution zone. I entered slightly earlier than originally planned, anticipating that the area would hold before the confirmation discussed during the live session. Ideally, the execution should have occurred after a retest of the key resistance, where the market eventually formed a distributive triple top. Although the timing was somewhat aggressive, the position remained protected by the HTF level, offering a favorable R/R profile while maintaining alignment with the overall bearish market structure.
SILVER short setup from VAL/key level
SILVER · SHORT · SWING · SUPPLY_DEMAND·Dojo Trading·
This case study examines a Silver short trade executed around the Value Area Low where HTF market structure aligned with a key resistance level.
Entry
67.77
TP1
61.46
TP2
58
The entry thought
On the way out
After the first goal was reached, the stop-loss was moved to break-even to eliminate downside risk. A partial position was then closed to secure profits while allowing the remaining exposure to benefit from additional downside momentum. The final portion of the trade was managed using a trailing stop.
Where the idea would break
The bearish thesis would have been invalidated if Silver had produced a confirmed HTF close above the key distribution area and Value Area Low, demonstrating that buyers had regained control of the auction. Such a move would have invalidated the expectation of a lower high and continuation to the downside.
On sizing the position
Position sizing remained conservative despite the quality of the setup. The trade represented a HTF opportunity with multiple technical confluences.
Nevertheless, exposure was intentionally limited to preserve capital (1.5%) and maintain consistency across a large sample of trades. Long-term performance depends more on disciplined position sizing than on the outcome of any individual setup.
How it unfolded
24-06-2026: TP1 has been hit, I'm taking consistent profits here since we didnt' have at least a 12H BOS and trailing my stop loss more aggressively. For me the trade is very close to its completion, therefore even If I get stopped I'm satisfied.
24-06-2026: TP2 has also been hit couple of hours later. I'm closing my entire position realizing a +135.83%.
Looking back
The HTF swing developed as expected, with the distributive structure leading to the anticipated bearish continuation. Although the initial entry was slightly premature compared to the original trading plan, the broader thesis remained valid and risk was managed correctly throughout the position.
How it played out
Exit
58.78
The trade successfully followed the HTF bearish thesis, with the key level acting as anticipated. Although the initial entry was slightly earlier than originally planned, disciplined risk management and adherence to the predefined strategy allowed the setup to develop into a successful swing.