The idea is to utilize the 3M breaker to catch an entry, for me in this case likely spot.
While we don't have a BOS above the last important high at $135.18 we cannot ignore the very HTF of the
3MBB inside a fair value lasting since April 2022.
We also have the HTF 0.618, the 0.5 of the 3MBB stands at $102.50 which can be interesting for the entry + the psychological level of $100 and the coverage from the 2W demand at $99.50.
COP HTF SETUP
COP · SPOT · POSITION · BREAKER·Dojo Trading·Conoco Phillips HTF seutp idea based on a 3M BB and confluence with US OIL.
Entry
102.5
TP1
120
TP2
130
The entry thought
On the way out
First take profit at $120, VAH + 4/5D supply, trailing mode.
Where the idea would break
Starting to close below the 3M BB would constitute a major sign of further weakness going for the 3M demand at $94.
How it unfolded
01-07-2026: Conoco Phillips arrived at the entry zone, hitting the 0.5 Fib inside the 3MBB. Based on this, I started to scale in into COP with a 1.5% dedicated to this spot trade. From here I will start to monitor how the price moves inside the breaker, adding more size as long as the area is respected, therefore till $99/$100, indicatively.
09.07.2026: Conoco Phillips provided a powerful reaction over the week and the first buy is currently up 8%. Now, it's important to note that this setup was in perfect confluence with crude oil, since ConocoPhillips operates in the oil sector. That added another layer of confirmation for taking this position. It's always very interesting to see how certain assets move in sync. Now, what can we observe? The most recent swing high, formed in June around $110, has not yet been reclaimed with at least a daily close above it. In addition, the POC, located around $111.35, is currently acting as resistance and generating a reaction. At the moment, this is not enough to confirm a full structural trend reversal. Rather, we're in what could be described as the early stages of one. So far, the market has only established a minor level on a LTF, around $105, and we'll have to see whether price comes back to retest that area or not. Personally, what I'd like to see is a daily close above the swing high, followed by a reclaim of the POC and continued upside. That would provide much stronger confirmation. That said, if price revisits lower levels, I'll continue accumulating spot, because I believe it has strong upside potential alongside crude oil. To confirm a complete structural trend reversal, however, we would need to reclaim the high of the 3rd drive, set on June 11, 2026, around $121. That move would recover the entire supply zone and the high-value area around $120, opening the door for a move toward $130 and potentially even new all-time highs. For now, though, it's still too early to make that call. Overall, the setup is developing in a very constructive and positive way.
09.09.2026: As per the last update, Conoco Phillips was very constructive and, after reclaiming the VAL, consolidated inside value (VAL/POC/VAH) before shooting higher. The setup has been "helped" by US OIL and XLE, with both that showcased strength demonstrating a perfect correlation with COP (US OIL up/COP profiting). All TP targets have been reached with the price also very close to the previous ATH. While it's possible to see new highs as long as the US OIL posture continues to remain bullish (eyeing $145/155 zone) I consider the trade concluded, taking out 60% and leaving 40% in case we reach higher levels. Details in the chart.
Looking back
How it played out
Exit
135.87
COP respected the HTF confluence and followed the expected directional bias. The reaction from the 3M BB setup, supported by US OIL, validated the thesis and delivered the projected move. All details shared in the chart.