The short thesis was built around a significant 12H supply zone, where Bitcoin was expected to encounter aggressive selling pressure after an extended impulsive rally. Additional confluence came from the USDT/USDC D chart, which was providing a valid BB, suggesting that liquidity could temporarily rotate out of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Short from 12H Supply | Trade Case Study
BTC · SHORT · SUPPLY_DEMAND·Dojo Trading·This case study examines a Bitcoin short setup executed from a significant 12H supply zone with additional confirmation from USDT/USDC Dominance
Entry
66.619
TP1
64.5
The entry thought
On the way out
Initial profit-taking was scheduled around the $64,400 support area, where buyers were expected to react and reduce downside momentum. Once the first target was achieved, the remaining position would be managed with a trailing stop.
Where the idea would break
The bearish thesis would have been invalidated by sustained price acceptance above the 12H supply zone. A confirmed HTF close above resistance would have indicated that buyers had successfully absorbed the available supply and regained market control. In that scenario, maintaining the short position would no longer have been statistically justified, making an exit the correct risk management decision.
On sizing the position
Risk exposure was intentionally limited to approximately 1.5% of portfolio capital.
Looking back
The setup developed according to the original thesis, with Bitcoin rejecting from the predefined 12H supply zone before moving toward the projected support area around $64,400.
How it played out
Exit
64.5
Bitcoin reacted from the predefined 12H supply allowing the trade to progress toward the planned profit objectives while respecting the original risk management framework had in mind.